As Maharashtra gears up for its Assembly elections in 2024, the political landscape is poised for a dramatic shift. The Election Commission of India has initiated the process, with the final electoral rolls scheduled for publication on August 30. This pivotal moment sets the stage for what promises to be one of the most closely scrutinized electoral contests of the year.
Maharashtra’s political terrain has been tumultuous, marked by frequent changes in leadership and governance. In the past five years alone, the state has witnessed three chief ministers and as many governments. This instability has made the upcoming elections even more significant, as voters seek to bring about a semblance of stability and effective governance.
According to an internal survey conducted by Roadmap to Win, a leading poll research firm, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition appears to have a distinct advantage over the ruling Mahayuti alliance. The MVA, composed of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), is projected to secure around 165 of the 288 Assembly seats. This forecast places them comfortably above the 144-seat threshold required to form a government.
Our survey results reveal that the MVA is particularly strong in the Nagpur, Amravati, Marathwada, and western Maharashtra regions. These areas are expected to be key battlegrounds where the coalition’s support could translate into significant electoral gains. Conversely, the ruling Mahayuti—consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena, and the NCP (Ajit Pawar)—maintains its stronghold in Mumbai, Konkan, and north Maharashtra. These regions remain crucial for the Mahayuti’s hopes of retaining power.
The survey data reflects a broader trend of regional polarization, with the MVA making considerable inroads in areas traditionally considered less favorable to them. This shift could be attributed to a range of factors including public dissatisfaction with the current governance and the MVA’s strategic campaign efforts.
As the election campaign intensifies, both alliances will need to focus on consolidating their base and addressing local issues to sway undecided voters. The Mahayuti will need to leverage its traditional strengths while addressing criticisms and capitalizing on any emerging issues. On the other hand, the MVA must ensure that its projected gains translate into actual electoral success by mobilizing support effectively and addressing any potential challenges.
In conclusion, the Maharashtra Assembly elections of 2024 are set to be a defining moment for the state. With a dynamic political environment and significant shifts in voter sentiment, the coming weeks will be crucial for all parties involved. As always, Roadmap to Win remains committed to providing accurate and insightful analysis to navigate these pivotal moments in the political arena.
Sunil Mishra
CEO, Roadmap to Win
www.roadmaptowin.in